If cases presenting at NYC emergency departments are, in fact, worried people without the requisite symptoms then it would make sense to examine measures which relieve unnecessary public worry and the burden on the emergency department. “It’s important to know that in a busy New York City emergency department, it can be a huge drain on resources to have all these people show up at the ER at once to get tested.” -Anonymous ER Doctor, interviewed in Gothamist, March 13, 2020 Given the current lack of Covid-19 testing access these individuals may also face unnecessary quarantine, follow-up, etc. These patients will still take up time with staff administration, being examined, processing paperwork, and being nervous. Worried peopleĮven if the unusual lift in Influenza-based Illness, 18+ this year is not related to Covid-19 (for example, if it is people who are worried but do not in fact have Covid-19) it will still place a burden on the system. These two elements provide a measure of how burdened the emergency department is relative to other challenges they’ve overcome. There is also a loadband showing the typical cases-per-day of ILI, all ages, during the peak of the 2019/2020 flu season (which actually ends just as this chart is beginning). Predicted case count above average (2017-2019) if case count grows according to the trend without any multiplier: solid gray line.įor reference, the case count of the heaviest day for Influenza-like Illness is included.Predicted case count above average (2017-2019) if cases before the first NYC-area death was announced are Covid-19 related: dotted curved line.

In this graph we see two predictions based on data from NYC Health and Mental Hygiene. lockdown) conditions are obtained in NYC. If the experience of Wuhan or Italy are an accurate guide, the case count will continue to increase for 12 days after drastic social distancing (i.e. Importantly, the work required–staff protective equipment, room and equipment cleaning, etc–of the emergency department is much more intense than a regular influenza season (see Offenhatz and Newman in resources below). So perhaps this decline in rate of change is a result of messaging re: staying home for cough/fever is getting through.Īt the current pace, sometime around March 26th emergency departments could begin seeing back-to-back record numbers of case counts per day.Īs of Maemergency departments were operating at the peak of this year’s regular influenza season. Respiratory cases, however, continue to increase. Hopefully a trend that will continue - Dan weinberger March 23, 2020 Some age groups and boroughs have seen a small decline in volume of ILI over last couple of days.

Nyc lockdown 2020